A Religion of Isolation (Pandemics Past and Present)

When a new topic overwhelms — as with coronavirus — it’s easy to take in a lot of noisy information. Information that isn’t helpful, accurate, or clear. With that in mind, and especially for those of you physically isolated in response to COVID-19, I present this (long) quote about the Dark Ages of Europe.

“Whatever reproach may, at a later period, have been justly thrown on the indolence and luxury of religious orders, it was surely good that, in an age of ignorance and violence, there should be quiet cloisters and gardens, in which the arts of peace could be safely cultivated, in which gentle and contemplative natures find an asylum, in which one brother could employ himself in transcribing the Aeneid of Virgil, and another in meditating the Analytics of Aristotle, in which who had a genius for art might illuminate a martyrology or carve a crucifix, and in which he who had a turn for natural philosophy might make experiments on properties of plants and minerals. Had not such retreats been scattered here and there, among the huts of a miserable peasantry, and the castles of a ferocious aristocracy, European society would have consisted merely of beasts of burden and beasts of prey. The Church has many times been compared by divines to the ark of which we read in the Book of Genesis: but never was the resemblance more perfect than during that evil when she alone rode, amidst darkness and tempest, on the deluge beneath which all the great works of power and wisdom lay entombed, bearing within that feeble germ from which a second and more glorious civilization was to spring.”

Continue reading “A Religion of Isolation (Pandemics Past and Present)”

On Campuses Reopening

Around the US, college campuses closed in mid-March. And they generally closed earlier in parts of Asia and later elsewhere around the world. When should they reopen?

The president of Brown University wrote an Op-ed piece in the NY Times (published April 26) to address this question.

I’ll only call out a few quotes and suggest you read it for yourself.

“Our students will have to understand that until a vaccine is developed, campus life will be different. Students and employees may have to wear masks on campus. Large lecture classes may remain online even after campuses open. Traditional aspects of collegiate life — athletic competitions, concerts and yes, parties — may occur, but in much different fashions. Imagine athletics events taking place in empty stadiums, recital halls with patrons spaced rows apart and virtual social activities replacing parties.

“But students will still benefit from all that makes in-person education so valuable: the fierce intellectual debates that just aren’t the same on Zoom, the research opportunities in university laboratories and libraries and the personal interactions among students with different perspectives and life experiences.”

But the paragraphs that might be called tone deaf are these. Continue reading “On Campuses Reopening”

Illegal Drugs and Coronavirus

After my earlier five-part series I managed to go a month without writing anything new about coronavirus. That ends today. But since this blog is about second-order effects (and because part of me still needs a break from the topic) I’m not writing about coronavirus in a conventional way. Instead, I’m revisiting a topic I first covered a year and a half ago and looking at impact from COVID-19.

That topic: the changed market for illegal substances (rhino horn and cocaine for now) and how they flow around the world.

In the midst of all the global health concerns you might wonder why I would return to the topic of rhino horn and cocaine when I could also write about so many other issues. I returned to this topic because by looking at the systems behind these illegal trades we can understand other issues relevant for COVID-19. Continue reading “Illegal Drugs and Coronavirus”

Changes in Value (Part 1)

When something changes in financial value quickly, unintended consequences abound. When this change happens at scale, affecting many people, the consequences are even more extreme. These changes impact supply and demand and social change around the world.

Let’s look at some examples of value change causing havoc. This week I’m intentionally (well, almost entirely) not writing about the topic you can’t escape.
Continue reading “Changes in Value (Part 1)”

Changing Minds on Coronavirus

Long-time readers of this blog know that I wrote about how disease spreads several times well before the recent coronavirus news. And then I wrote three posts on that. I’m hardly alone in my interest on this topic.

But apart from what we’re going through now, infectious diseases generally don’t get as much attention as I think they deserve. In terms of unintended consequences, I’m interested in the impact of disease on human decision making and where things went wrong, or well, in the past. As for the potential impact of COVID-19 in the near-term, some minds are changing in the midst of political, business, social, and educational impact.

And then there is the look back in history. When I recently learned the story of a European plague year’s impact on Dutch “tulipmania,” the modern and historical protective images intrigued me as well.

Left: a protective white suit used when dealing with extreme infectious environments. Right: European plague doctor “Doctor Schnabel” (Dr. Beak). Doctors stuffed sweet smelling flowers and herbs into the mask’s beak to protect against noxious fumes believed to transmit disease. Also note the waxed coat, hat, and gloves.

Continue reading “Changing Minds on Coronavirus”

Disinformation and Disease (Coronavirus Edition)

I’ve already written two earlier posts (one and two) on second-order effects of the coronavirus (COVID-19). Let’s now take the coronavirus situation to think through unintended consequences in a different way. For this post, I’m focusing on disinformation as related to the spread of disease.

What are some of the tactics used to spread disinformation, what are some cases of disease-related disinformation in history, and how will things possibly change over time and place?

What are some of the second-order effects coming from the different ways we communicate today, information’s ability to spread widely and cheaply, and even the surprising longevity of digital information?

And unlike many of the other posts on this site, is there more benefit from centralized best practices than in keeping different healthcare practices? Continue reading “Disinformation and Disease (Coronavirus Edition)”

Coronavirus Consequences (Part 2)

While I tend not to write about current events, in the last article I introduced a set of worldwide consequences from the spread of the novel Wuhan coronavirus. We are still learning a lot about this disease, its origins and how it spreads. But with another week of information, here are additions to the consequences that may come from this disease and the reaction to it.

What scares some people about the novel coronavirus is not only the mortality rate of 2% to 3% — or 20 – 50 times that of the influenza in a typical year. Rather, it’s that the systems for spreading this coronavirus are different, that the animal origination of the disease is another sign that species crossover may become more common in the future, and that there are other technological changes that we may also see.

On species crossover, we have this quote from a NY Times opinion piece by David Quammen, titled We Made the Coronavirus Epidemic: Continue reading “Coronavirus Consequences (Part 2)”

Coronavirus Consequences

As a rule, I don’t cover breaking news on this site. Plenty of other sources do that. Instead, when I do write about current events I focus on looking at the effects that systems have generating unintended consequences. That’s why I’m only writing about the Wuhan novel coronavirus now, almost at the end of the declared 14-day lockdown period.

And what a story of systems.

While the novel coronavirus fatality rate is estimated at 2.2% versus 9.6% for SARS, some other qualities of this outbreak may make the illness more difficult to contain, namely the long period of incubation (14 day estimate) and the increased amount of travel, including international and domestic Lunar New Year travel shortly before the lockdown period.

If you want an example of how times have changed since earlier epidemics, watch this video from the English publication of China’s People’s Daily. Continue reading “Coronavirus Consequences”

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