A Second Step (to Systems Thinking)

When we want to change, build, or improve something we often only look one step in. That is, if we take action A we will get result B. End of story.

That’s only the end of the story because we stop looking.

Sometimes we only look that far because of a lack of imagination. Other times incentives are misaligned. Or when change comes at us too quickly. We also often only look one step in because considering more steps is difficult or impossible. The attempt to go beyond those problems is sometimes called “second-order thinking.”

Here are some recent events and proposal that clearly involve more than a single step when it comes to outcomes. Let’s look at ways the first step can result in unintended second steps and ways to change how we assess outcomes. Continue reading “A Second Step (to Systems Thinking)”

Vultures and Ventures (Structure of Growth and Decline)

Vultures: Why are vultures dying in large numbers around the world? What else happens when the vultures decline? And let’s ask the question few are comfortable asking: How much is a species worth?

Ventures: Why do well-funded, fast-growing startups die? What else happens when they die? And let’s ask the question that is often ignored: Who wins in the process? Continue reading “Vultures and Ventures (Structure of Growth and Decline)”

Anything at Scale

While we usually talk about non-linear scale transformations in physical materials (radically different properties exhibited at nano scale, for example) there are also different scale effects driven by people and businesses. What will happen at scale is not always apparent, especially when our observations are biased toward single user or small group settings. Situations can grow less obvious or chaotic with growth.

Let’s look at effects of scale transformations in housing, fast wealth creation in a large population, transportation, and what happens when forces converge on places that are just too beautiful. Continue reading “Anything at Scale”