systems | complexity | second-order effects
We can learn a lot by studying the systems that led to the emergence of the novel coronavirus, its fast spread around the world, and remaining effects. The world will be different afterward.
How did we get here? And where might we go? Continue reading “Coronavirus Cocktail, Catalyst, and Closeout”
Long-time readers of this blog know that I wrote about how disease spreads several times well before the recent coronavirus news. And then I wrote three posts on that. I’m hardly alone in my interest on this topic.
But apart from what we’re going through now, infectious diseases generally don’t get as much attention as I think they deserve. In terms of unintended consequences, I’m interested in the impact of disease on human decision making and where things went wrong, or well, in the past. As for the potential impact of COVID-19 in the near-term, some minds are changing in the midst of political, business, social, and educational impact.
And then there is the look back in history. When I recently learned the story of a European plague year’s impact on Dutch “tulipmania,” the modern and historical protective images intrigued me as well.
I’ve already written two earlier posts (one and two) on second-order effects of the coronavirus (COVID-19). Let’s now take the coronavirus situation to think through unintended consequences in a different way. For this post, I’m focusing on disinformation as related to the spread of disease.
What are some of the tactics used to spread disinformation, what are some cases of disease-related disinformation in history, and how will things possibly change over time and place?
What are some of the second-order effects coming from the different ways we communicate today, information’s ability to spread widely and cheaply, and even the surprising longevity of digital information?
And unlike many of the other posts on this site, is there more benefit from centralized best practices than in keeping different healthcare practices? Continue reading “Disinformation and Disease (Coronavirus Edition)”
While I tend not to write about current events, in the last article I introduced a set of worldwide consequences from the spread of the novel Wuhan coronavirus. We are still learning a lot about this disease, its origins and how it spreads. But with another week of information, here are additions to the consequences that may come from this disease and the reaction to it.
What scares some people about the novel coronavirus is not only the mortality rate of 2% to 3% — or 20 – 50 times that of the influenza in a typical year. Rather, it’s that the systems for spreading this coronavirus are different, that the animal origination of the disease is another sign that species crossover may become more common in the future, and that there are other technological changes that we may also see.
On species crossover, we have this quote from a NY Times opinion piece by David Quammen, titled We Made the Coronavirus Epidemic: Continue reading “Coronavirus Consequences (Part 2)”
As a rule, I don’t cover breaking news on this site. Plenty of other sources do that. Instead, when I do write about current events I focus on looking at the effects that systems have generating unintended consequences. That’s why I’m only writing about the Wuhan novel coronavirus now, almost at the end of the declared 14-day lockdown period.
And what a story of systems.
While the novel coronavirus fatality rate is estimated at 2.2% versus 9.6% for SARS, some other qualities of this outbreak may make the illness more difficult to contain, namely the long period of incubation (14 day estimate) and the increased amount of travel, including international and domestic Lunar New Year travel shortly before the lockdown period.
If you want an example of how times have changed since earlier epidemics, watch this video from the English publication of China’s People’s Daily. Continue reading “Coronavirus Consequences”