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War Doves, War Norms, War Moms

Over two years ago, I started writing a lot about the emerging pandemic. That crisis unfolded with a quaint stateliness and simplicity compared to the situation in Ukraine. (I also had a personal perspective formed by earlier writing about pandemics and work and travel around China so I wrote sooner and more often about that topic.) While the pandemic hit different populations in somewhat similar ways across the globe depending on infrastructure, medical care, policy, social beliefs, and more, the situation in Ukraine is different.

There are different camps of support, countries will be impacted differently by changing commodities costs and social preferences, and the military situation is still a question. But speed is one notable characteristic.

War Doves

People are again making a big deal out of Pope Francis’ 2014 dove-release-for-Ukraine-peace gone wrong.

“At the Vatican, Pope Francis called for an end to violence in the Ukraine before releasing two white doves as a symbol of peace. Moments later, a black crow and a seagull attacked the doves in front of the horrified crowd.”

Continue reading “War Doves, War Norms, War Moms”

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The Tamarind Tree (Intervention)

These two scenes have been compared a lot recently.

Left: US evacuation, 22 Gia Long St. (Saigon) 29 April 1975. Credit: Hugh Van Es/UPI. Right: US embassy (Kabul) evacuation 15 August 2021. Credit: Rahmat Gul

A little known story about the one on the left is that a large tamarind tree grew on the US Saigon embassy compound. The US ambassador used the symbol of the tamarind tree to represent the solidity of US support for South Vietnam.

And in some ways, the April 1975 fall of Saigon (a scene known to be avoided by two generations of US politicians) was much like the August 2021 fall of Kabul turned out to be. Continue reading “The Tamarind Tree (Intervention)”

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Unintended UAPs

This post is about the UAP (Unidentified Aerial Phenomenon) “sightings” that have gained attention over the past few years and especially in the past few months. If you haven’t heard of this before or seen some of the (admittedly grainy) videos, it’s a tell of how a potentially big (and weird) story doesn’t get as much attention as it probably should.

Unlike previous UFO (Unidentified Flying Object) sightings from the past half century, the UAP situation is different. Rather than random individuals or conspiracy theorists, witnesses include fighter jet pilots. Interested parties include the military and senior government officials. The US government has established the Unidentified Aerial Phenomena Task Force. We went from oddballs claiming that they saw UFOs to people with a lot of credibility to lose claiming that they have either observed UAPs or believe that the question deserves serious attention.

No matter your opinion of what the reality is, there are few main outcomes we can expect the more we learn about this topic. These outcomes all seem to portend a change of some sort. Continue reading “Unintended UAPs”

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Onward, Robot Soldiers?

I’ve written multiple times about basic values, technology trends, and how they can be causes of unintended consequences.

Today I’m exploring the topic of autonomous weapons, reasons behind their development, and potential outcomes. This is a big topic that I will certainly return to multiple times.

Autonomous weapons are characterized by understanding battlefield goals and finding ways to achieve these goals without human action. Such weapons are currently being researched, developed, and tested as intelligent wingmen for fighter pilots, as support vehicles carrying supplies and fuel, and as offensive weapons. Continue reading “Onward, Robot Soldiers?”

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Information Control (Four Types)

Societies have long valued information control but methods of control have changed over time. What systems drive these changes? And where do undesirable outcomes occur?

Using any of these methods doesn’t imply bad intentions. In some cases, there are good reasons for wanting to control information. But if we’re thinking only of intentions, we’ll lose our focus on outcomes. Good intentions can lead us down bad pathways.

Four major types of control information are destruction, banning, debauching, and blocking.

These methods are applied to recorded information as well as what we carry in our memories and pass down verbally.

And why do I care about this?

Continue reading “Information Control (Four Types)”

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One-Way System Roads

Some systems look like one-way roads. Here I’ll call one-way system roads those which seem inclined to move in one direction, even if the endpoint is difficult to predict, and where it is difficult to return to the earlier state. In some cases an intervenor slows movement down the one-way road or lengthens the road itself.

Let’s look at depletion of forests to make charcoal, the search for oil, the possibility of world wars, opioid and social media addiction, and presidential election cycles.

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Is the World Getting Safer?

It’s common to hear that the world has become safer. Likewise, a common criticism of those who disagree is that they are ignorant of the facts. According to some measures, we have seen decades or even centuries of improvement in the form or lower violence, with instances of war or homicides per capita often presented as relevant factors.

Let’s look at how this relates to studying systems and unintended consequences.

From a talk by Steven Pinker on the topic:

“Homicide rates plunge whenever anarchy and the code of vendetta are replaced by the rule of law. It happened when feudal Europe was brought under the control of centralized kingdoms… It happened again in colonial New England, in the American Wild West when the sheriffs moved to town, and in Mexico…. Continue reading “Is the World Getting Safer?”

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Under a Spell – The Armistice at 100

In under a week it will be the 100th anniversary of the armistice that ended hostilities during World War I. While WWI is distant enough in the past to no longer be a constant comparison to the present, those years of conflict still echo today. The war was a relatively short period when many things changed.

Thousands of others have already written at length about the first modern war and its consequences. These works fill entire libraries. Instead, here I look at what enduring technologies and strategies WWI gave opportunity to arise.

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What Are Unexpected Benefits?

When studying unintended consequences and second-level thinking, the least common category of example is the unexpected benefit. This is a positive, yet unexpected or unpredictable outcome from an action.

Compare against the unexpected drawback (unexpected detriments that occur in addition to the desired effect of the solution) and the perverse result (the “solution” makes the problem worse).

And a scan of common examples makes me believe that some of what we call unexpected benefits are improperly classified.

Continue reading “What Are Unexpected Benefits?”