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Universal Basic Income (Part 2)

This is a continuation of the Universal Basic Income (UBI) discussion, mostly focused on the impact on entrepreneurship and personal choice of what work-related activities to pursue. (If you missed it, here’s UBI Part 1.)

As in the previous posts, I think we should pause in the face of large top-down decisions. While things can look good in theory, these large-scale changes often bring unintended consequences. How should we look at the systems we will replace? Might there be second-order effects in the case of UBI as well? What system changes will emerge?

What are some entrepreneurship-related unexpected results we could see from top-down UBI in the US? Continue reading “Universal Basic Income (Part 2)”

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Universal Basic Income (Part 1)

I’ve avoided discussing unintended consequences from one of the big policy debates of today — Universal Basic Income. Until now. This is a big topic so I preemptively titled this post as part one.

Universal Basic Income (UBI) is a general term that describes mostly government programs that distribute a periodic sum of money to citizens without otherwise considering their income. UBI has been proposed as everything from a tool to reduce poverty to a way to guard against the social impact of job loss caused by automation.

Each group outlines ways UBI could work a little differently. But many questions remain, including how will a particular country’s overall social system change? What are the second-order effects? Could UBI work in one place and not another? Could UBI work at one time and not another? Let’s first look at some UBI experiments and their initial pros and cons.

Continue reading “Universal Basic Income (Part 1)”

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What is Emergence? (Part 1)

Part of my writing is an exploration of themes in unintended consequences and second-order effects. Today’s post is a first introduction to the broad phenomenon of emergence. This topic is something I’ll return to again, so we’re just introducing the term today.

Emergence occurs where the parts of a system interact to form something different from what each part contributes independently. It’s a concept that takes some time to understand at a basic level, though emergence happens all around us. Some common examples include the way hydrogen and oxygen atoms combine to form water (very different in combination from the individual atoms), how  water molecules combine to form drops (again different from individual molecules with properties like surface tension), and how drops of water combine to form rivers and oceans (different again with their currents and waves). There are many other examples, from individual birds (or fish) forming flocks (or schools) that move differently than the individuals would by themselves, to consciousness emerging from our physical brains… Continue reading “What is Emergence? (Part 1)”

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Victims of Fashion

Individuals typically fit in with the fashions of their time rather than entirely invent their own. What happens to be popular during our lifespans, and especially our younger lives when we more often seek fashionable options, is a matter of luck. Most of us have only a slight impact on these decisions. What are the unintended consequences that can follow? Continue reading “Victims of Fashion”