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CEOs, Students, and Algorithms

Hummingbirds and flowers co-adapted over millions of years. As with the shapes of the flowers they take nectar from, hummingbird beaks grew to different lengths, some straight, some curved.

Photo: Sonia Nadales

However, some bees learned that they could access the nectar within tubular flowers by chewing a hole at the base and robbing the nectar from there. When that happens, the flower loses its nectar without getting pollinated.

We see this with humans and computers too. Continue reading “CEOs, Students, and Algorithms”

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Morals of the Moment

In an earlier post (Do We Create Shoplifters) we saw how a changed environment can change behavior.

That post focused on tech development with behavior change for the worse. In this post, rather than tech, I focus on good intentions that give no thought to second steps, or how a system may change. These good intentions backfire.

Let’s look at the unintended outcomes of otherwise well-meaning system changes in education, forest management, and hiring. Continue reading “Morals of the Moment”

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What is Unity? (Post-Election Questions)

Now that the US presidential election is over (well, probably) we’ve seen calls for unity (at least from Biden’s side). But what is unity? What do you need in order to have it? And if we don’t have it now, why not?

This story of unintended consequences starts with business models that benefit from division. Always look for incentives in designed systems and in systems that emerge.

Old News, New News

News of all types – real, fake, stressed, ignored, and biased – was a big part of the last four years. Let’s look at the general change in the media industry from pre-Internet days to today.

If we don’t have unity today, but maybe did in the past, is some of that due to changing news industry business models?

Continue reading “What is Unity? (Post-Election Questions)”

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Decision Making (Startups and Patients)

With decisions come opportunities for unintended consequences, especially when when success and failure are radically different. How do we make a decision in a high-risk environment? What advice do we take in, how do our desires affect us, and what happens if this is a one-time game versus a multi-time game?

Here I’m going to look at two very different decisions that people make: how to run a startup and how to choose between options for a serious health issues. Continue reading “Decision Making (Startups and Patients)”

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One-Way System Roads

Some systems look like one-way roads. Here I’ll call one-way system roads those which seem inclined to move in one direction, even if the endpoint is difficult to predict, and where it is difficult to return to the earlier state. In some cases an intervenor slows movement down the one-way road or lengthens the road itself.

Let’s look at depletion of forests to make charcoal, the search for oil, the possibility of world wars, opioid and social media addiction, and presidential election cycles.

Continue reading “One-Way System Roads”

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Is the World Getting Safer?

It’s common to hear that the world has become safer. Likewise, a common criticism of those who disagree is that they are ignorant of the facts. According to some measures, we have seen decades or even centuries of improvement in the form or lower violence, with instances of war or homicides per capita often presented as relevant factors.

Let’s look at how this relates to studying systems and unintended consequences.

From a talk by Steven Pinker on the topic:

“Homicide rates plunge whenever anarchy and the code of vendetta are replaced by the rule of law. It happened when feudal Europe was brought under the control of centralized kingdoms… It happened again in colonial New England, in the American Wild West when the sheriffs moved to town, and in Mexico…. Continue reading “Is the World Getting Safer?”

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Reversible or Irreversible? (Voting)

At the beginning of WWI, French soldiers entered battle wearing red pants, carrying swords, and depending on rank, had plumes in their caps.

That attire suited previous wars where the technology and tactics used were more similar to the Battle of Waterloo a hundred years earlier than anything they were about to face in 1914.

A lot was to change in WWI, including the first mainstream uses of camouflage, airplanes, radio communication, long-range artillery, high-intensity shelling, submarines, tanks, poison gas, and more.

After WWI there was no return to what now seem like quaint military practices.

We make the same mistake when we look at some risks as being reversible when they are irreversible. How can we tell the difference? Continue reading “Reversible or Irreversible? (Voting)”

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Amazon’s Unintended Consequences

Writing about a range of unintended consequences from a single company is a new format for me. I typically have either looked more widely at effects from a new technology, policy, or event. But many companies create or house second-order effects.

As a start, let’s look at Amazon. Amazon was an easy choice to start with since the company is big ($321 billion in revenue in the past 12 months), has multiple business lines, and is a mix of software, hardware, and people businesses.

This article is long and it really only scratches the surface of some of Amazon’s unintended consequences.

Continue reading “Amazon’s Unintended Consequences”

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That Hair Trigger

A month after the inauguration of Donald Trump I made a mistake in my classroom. I invited in someone — someone I didn’t know personally — to be a speaker.

He came recommended, we had a phone call beforehand, and the day was set. He was to speak about the topic of customer retention metrics (what I teach off of this blog is quite different than what you might expect).

Halfway through the class, at the appointed time, he arrived. He set up his laptop and started with an introduction to himself and his company. But things soon got sidetracked.

At about his third slide, a strange look came over him. He started to make references to the recent election and how upset he was about it. Then the following exchange happened, which I’m obviously repeating from memory since there was no video.

“The thing you have to remember about Trump is that he is the Antichrist,” he said.

I glanced around the room. Continue reading “That Hair Trigger”