The 70th anniversary of the PRC

“So it’s his fault?!”

That was what I heard a Taiwanese visitor say years ago in front of the statue of Koxinga, located in Tainan, Taiwan.

Koxinga was a Ming dynasty general who fled to Taiwan and established an Ming outpost there from 1662 to 1683. The Qing dynasty (which defeated the Ming) later defeated Koxinga’s new kingdom and wrapped Taiwan into the Qing dynasty.

The visitor’s complaint: that without Koxinga there would not be a struggle, going on even today, over the future of Taiwan.

This is a post about founding ceremonies. And today is the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China.

Dong Xiwen painted this representation of China’s founding ceremony on October 1st, 1949, with Mao Zedong and a senior party delegation overlooking crowds in Tiananmen Square.

Interestingly, Dong and others edited the painting over the next 30 years to remove people who had fallen from favor.

These edits are highlighted candidly in this Global Times (part of The People’s Daily news group) article, quoted below.

“This classic painting, nevertheless, experienced several twists of fate connected to the political figures depicted therein. Three years after it was finished, then Vice President Gao Gang, who was painted standing in the front row of leaders in the painting, was expelled from the Communist Party. So Dong was asked to remove Gao from the painting.”

Gao Gang tried to take power from key political figures Zhou Enlai and Liu Shaoqi, but failed. He killed himself in 1954.

Ironically, Liu Shaoqi was the next person edited from the painting.

“After Liu Shaoqi was reviled during the Cultural Revolution, in 1971 the cancer-plagued Dong was required to remove Liu, who was also in the front row, and replaced him with Dong Biwu, who was almost invisible in the original version.”

Party Deputy Chairman Lin Biao (who died two years later in a suspicious plane accident) removed Liu from his position. At the Ninth Party Congress in 1969, Liu was denounced by Zhou Enlai as a traitor, enemy agent in the service of imperialists and Kuomintang (Taiwan). Liu died later in 1969.

“In 1972, while Dong was undergoing chemotherapy, he was asked to remove yet another political figure, Lin Boqu. Unable to make the changes himself, his student Jin accomplished the task under Dong’s guidance.”

Lin Boqu had died 12 years before the time Dong’s student edited him out of the painting in 1972. The reason for Lin Boqu’s removal was his earlier opposition to Chairman Mao and Jiang Qing’s marriage. (Ironically, Jiang Qing herself was purged after the Cultural Revolution as one of the Gang of Four.)

“When the Cultural Revolution came to an end, this meant The Opening Ceremony needed to be restored to its original state.”

The extent of the multiple revisions are unlike anything I know elsewhere, even in the Soviet and European Communist experience, where individuals would be edited out of photos. The need for the revisions themselves are interesting as well. It’s as if to say that by getting the founding team wrong the system of government is itself fallible. And that can’t be.

A different founding

Back to the statue of Koxinga.

Apart from Koxinga’s founding of the Kingdom of Tungning and then defeat by the Qing, who then added Taiwan to their empire, parts of Taiwan were colonized by the Dutch, Spanish, French, Japanese powers as well.

Koxinga defeated the Dutch colonists in Taiwan in 1662. There he established his kingdom and was eventually defeated by the Qing in 1683. That was the first time that Taiwan came under Chinese control.

That’s why the above visitor’s complaint is insightful. If Koxinga had instead fled somewhere else, or not at all, would Taiwan today be contested?

Why just one?

Time to ask the questions that no one but children ask.

Why is there a one China policy? What was founded on October 1st, 1949? The historical boundaries of Chinese dynasties changed over time, so why lock in on one map?

The simple answer is that there is too much to lose from not maintaining the oneness of China. While Taiwan might seem like a small place in size and population, entertaining official independence would create chaos on the PRC side. That is, if Taiwan could declare independence, then that could also put other places at risk, including Hong Kong (currently already at odds with the PRC), Xinjiang (already experiencing enhanced police surveillance), and Tibet.

This is a structural bind that I believe only China has experienced globally. Even other states that split in recent history, like East and West Germany and North and South Vietnam did not maintain a one state policy. Most countries today recognize North Korea as well as South Korea. Others, that did become independent, like Eritrea (from Ethiopia) and Singapore (from Malaysia) did not battle a one state concept. The partition of India is not comparable either.

Certain of the past events are more dependent on the systems in which they operated. For example, it’s possible that Koxinga’s actions hundreds of years ago would have resulted in a different outcome today.

Here are a few thought experiments to consider in the case of Taiwan and PRC.

  • What if Koxinga had not fled to Taiwan and established his kingdom there? What if he went somewhere that was defensible? Or what if the Qing (a non-Chinese foreign dynasty) had not invaded?
  • What if the KMT had not fled to Taiwan at the end of the Chinese Civil War and instead went elsewhere (Burma being one of the poorly supported options)?
  • What if the island of Taiwan were similar in size to the mainland? Or similar in population? Or at least within an order of magnitude? The smallness of Taiwan’s area and population makes the argument not to recognize the larger side more difficult.
  • What if the KMT on Taiwan had abandoned the One China Policy when the PRC was weak and when Taiwan was still in the UN?

That statue in Tainan was a remembrance to acts from over 300 years ago that are still felt today. We often don’t have the statues to reflect on.

This is especially true today when countries around the world are pushing back against China in ways not seen before. From overseas support for protests in Hong Kong, to criticism of China surveillance technology, to Belt and Road Initiative infrastructure projects, the next 70 years will be different.

What systems exist that could place the next 70 years of China’s history in different pathway than recently expected?