This post is about the UAP (Unidentified Aerial Phenomenon) “sightings” that have gained attention over the past few years and especially in the past few months. If you haven’t heard of this before or seen some of the (admittedly grainy) videos, it’s a tell of how a potentially big (and weird) story doesn’t get as much attention as it probably should.
Unlike previous UFO (Unidentified Flying Object) sightings from the past half century, the UAP situation is different. Rather than random individuals or conspiracy theorists, witnesses include fighter jet pilots. Interested parties include the military and senior government officials. The US government has established the Unidentified Aerial Phenomena Task Force. We went from oddballs claiming that they saw UFOs to people with a lot of credibility to lose claiming that they have either observed UAPs or believe that the question deserves serious attention.
No matter your opinion of what the reality is, there are few main outcomes we can expect the more we learn about this topic. These outcomes all seem to portend a change of some sort.
- One outcome is that there are indeed UAPs flying around in ways beyond what current technology allows for. Crafts that can fly at 80,000 miles per hour and that can make right-angle turns. They may be from another world or this one. Either outcome is worrying. If the UAPs are otherworldly, why are they here? What comes next? If the UAPs are from this world, who built them? What’s going to change now that this technology exists?
- A second outcome would be to learn that military-grade sensors and some military personnel are regularly being tricked into seeing something that isn’t there. These “sightings” may be illusions of perspective, images created from camera glare, or the out-of-focus bokeh effect. They may be geolocation spoofing or radar deception. But this is a worrying outcome too. If the most advanced military is prey to such illusions or attacks, then the balance of power has suddenly dramatically changed.
- Of course a third outcome could be that we maintain the status quo. We still don’t know what the UAPs are or if they are really there. They might be aliens or alien probes or they might be illusions or deceptions. In that outcome, conspiracy theories abound.
In this post I’m making the assumption that there is something to these UAPs. I count that as the less relevant part of the question for now. What additional evidence there is may be revealed in more detail in the June congressional hearing (if it happens) and I assume afterward.
Instead, I’m focusing on the questions of what could change following strong evidence or direct proof that the UAPs and their movements are real, whether that means they are piloted by aliens, autonomous probes, extraterrestrial, or invented by earthlings. I’m also interested in what could change if the UAP experiences — especially the ones captured by the military — are shown to be illusions like I mentioned above.
Land of the Lost Logic
This is a short post, so I’m not going into the Fermi Paradox — why, if the universe is full of stars and planets, does it seem like only earth has intelligent life (or why it’s the only place in the universe with life at all).
There are lists of why we don’t see signs of intelligent life from outside of earth. But many of those past explanations, like part of this old list from Wait But Why, seem a little different these days:
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- “Possibility 6) There’s plenty of activity and noise out there, but our technology is too primitive and we’re listening for the wrong things.”
- “Possibility 7) We are receiving contact from other intelligent life, but the government is hiding it.”
- “Possibility 8) Higher civilizations are aware of us and observing us (AKA the “Zoo Hypothesis.)”
- “Possibility 9) Higher civilizations are here, all around us. But we’re too primitive to perceive them.”
Another possibility is that, should there actually be signs of intelligent life from elsewhere, UFOs carry such a stigma that it takes longer than normal for such signs to be considered seriously.
That has changed.
On June 25th there will be government report on… something.
From the Intelligence Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021:
“Advanced Aerial Threats
“The Committee supports the efforts of the Unidentified Aerial Phenomenon Task Force at the Office of Naval Intelligence to standardize collection and reporting on unidentified aerial phenomenon, any links they have to adversarial foreign governments, and the threat they pose to U.S. military assets and installations. However, the Committee remains concerned that there is no unified, comprehensive process within the Federal Government for collecting and analyzing intelligence on unidentified aerial phenomena, despite the potential threat. The Committee understands that the relevant intelligence may be sensitive; nevertheless, the Committee finds that the information sharing and coordination across the Intelligence Community has been inconsistent, and this issue has lacked attention from senior leaders.
“Therefore, the Committee directs the DNI [Director of National Intelligence], in consultation with the Secretary of Defense and the heads of such other agencies as the Director and Secretary jointly consider relevant, to submit a report within 180 days of the date of enactment of the Act, to the congressional intelligence and armed services committees on unidentified aerial phenomena (also known as ‘anomalous aerial vehicles’), including observed airborne objects that have not been identified.
“The Committee further directs the report to include:
“1. A detailed analysis of unidentified aerial phenomena data and intelligence reporting collected or held by the Office of Naval Intelligence, including data and intelligence reporting held by the Unidentified Aerial Phenomena Task Force;
“2. A detailed analysis of unidentified phenomena data collected by:
“a. geospatial intelligence;
“b. signals intelligence;
“c. human intelligence; and
“d. measurement and signals intelligence;
“3. A detailed analysis of data of the FBI, which was derived from investigations of intrusions of unidentified aerial phenomena data over restricted United States airspace;
“4. A detailed description of an interagency process for ensuring timely data collection and centralized analysis of all unidentified aerial phenomena reporting for the Federal Government, regardless of which service or agency acquired the information;
“5. Identification of an official accountable for the process described in paragraph 4;
“6. Identification of potential aerospace or other threats posed by the unidentified aerial phenomena to national security, and an assessment of whether this unidentified aerial phenomena activity may be attributed to one or more foreign adversaries;
“7. Identification of any incidents or patterns that indicate a potential adversary may have achieved breakthrough aerospace capabilities that could put United States strategic or conventional forces at risk; and
“8. Recommendations regarding increased collection of data, enhanced research and development, and additional funding and other resources.
“The report shall be submitted in unclassified form, but may include a classified annex.”
It would also be relevant to know if such UAP sightings were actually illusions that puzzled elite military forces for years. Coming to that conclusion would be a big story itself.
I have no idea if the UAPs spotted are real.
People are swayed by terms and terms sometimes gain negative connotations because of history. As a result, we invent new ones, even though the meaning may stay the same. (For example, the term “propaganda” became “public relations.”) It makes sense that a serious assessment would require “UFO” to be replaced by another term.
I’m treating this topic seriously given the mental bias hurdle that already had to be overcome for the UAP discussion to come this far. The US military has a lot to lose should their videos and personnel experiences be proven to be faked, sensor errors, illusions, or otherwise nonsensical.
Humanity’s Approaches
How might people reach to strong evidence of extraterrestrial UAPs? In many ways, some of which are contrary to each other. People are different.
Flight to Safety. Survivalism, homesteading, isolationism. People withdraw into their own homes and communities, seeking safety.
Flight to Traditionalism. People seek the familiar. A resurgence of traditional attitudes, styles, and practices.
Religious Divergence: Growth. Religious organizations or general spirituality finds new life.
Religious Divergence: Irrelevance. Religions have less sense-making to offer and membership declines fast.
Religious Divergence: Doomsday Cults. Seeing UAPs as a religious experience. New religions formed on the foundation of the UAPs.
Augury. Charlatans emerge to divine what the UAPs or aliens want. The charlatans become the channel to deliver those goods to the UAPs, becoming rich in the process.
Appeasement. Political and other leaders make offerings in a non-religious sense in the hopes of tempering any violent response from the UAPs.
New Sheepishness. People lose their confidence, seeing that the world may end suddenly and in a way they don’t understand.
New Boldness. As in The Second Coming by Yeats: “The best lack all conviction, while the worst/ Are full of passionate intensity.”
Nihilism. There’s no point to anything anymore. Let’s just wait for the end of the world.
Fatalism: We’ll Make Great Pets. We had a good run. Might as well accept the new reality. Humans will be as pets to the more advanced aliens.
Elect Representatives or Single Leader. The idea, from past political conflict, as well as popular books and movies, that there is a leader that could speak for all humanity. Questionable.
Advance the Escape from Earth: Physical. Take the presence of UAPs as a reason to more quickly develop ways to leave earth, whether for other planets or other places to live.
Advance the Escape from Earth: Brain Emulation. Same as the physical escape from earth, except rather than moving human bodies off the planet, develop ways to move human minds out of their bodies. This idea brain emulation was described in the book The Age of Em, by Robin Hanson, although he focused on an non-alien, AI future.
Advance the Escape from Earth: Package Human Creative Production. Record the best of humanity’s creations and send that content off planet.
Effect on Other Derided or Taboo Topics. Other topics, now less bizarre, suddenly become mainstream.
Ignore. After all, we do that with other passive threats.
Population Collapse. With a global existential threat, why have children?
Economic Collapse. With a global existential threat, why invest?
Sensitivity to Randomness. Assigning blame to the UAPs for otherwise random events.
Military Funding. Military expansion above other aims, as a way to protect the earth from potential destruction.
Creative Explosion. Combinations of separated groups can have positive creative outcomes. If Picasso could develop cubism after seeing a wooden mask from Africa, imagine what could happen by combining alien culture and human culture.
Operation Warp Speed for Everything. A new perspective on production. Always asking: “does it help humanity today?” If so, it is funded.
Short-Term Thinking. Believing that a UAP conflict is imminent, long-term goals are sacrificed for immediate results.
There would probably be a mix of all of these simultaneously.
There is also a number of outcomes should the UAPs be shown to be illusions, faked, or built by humans on earth.
If the UAPs are fake or illusions, we might expect these outcomes:
Damaged Military Credibility. In the case of UAPs appearing because of illusions caused by natural effects, the military loses major credibility. This also is a sign of weakness. The effect on US military oversight and budgets could go in either direction. In the case of sensors being intentionally spoofed, the US military loses credibility but also seeks to damage the attacking groups. Increased military budgets.
If the UAPs are “real” but from this world, we might expect these outcomes:
Sudden Power Shift. The group that controls the ability to fly and maneuver way beyond the fastest jets suddenly shifts power away from the US and other conventional militaries.
Fatalism: We’ll Make Great Serfs. We had a good run. Might as well accept the new reality. Humans without the UAP technology will be serfs to the humans who developed and control the new technology.
Shifting Minds
I feel like I’ve written a lot and I’ve barely covered the topic of aliens (religious origins and scientific observation origins) or post-earth society. Regardless of outcomes, I’ve found it amazing to watch the formerly kooky UFO topic become the serious UAP topic, over just a few years.
I have no idea how things will end on this discussion. But I do know that it can be dangerous to restrict the realm of the possible to what we can possibly discuss.