systems | complexity | second-order effects
I write these posts to call attention to common phenomena that make the world work differently than we might think. One less discussed type of unintended consequence is the “self-defeating prophecy,” or “self-negating prediction,” where the existence of a prediction or belief ultimately leads to the opposite of what is expected.
Continue reading “The Self-Defeating Prophecy (and How it Works)”
After 35 years, China’s One Child Policy has come to an end. Carried out with high compliance and across a large population (at scale a decision is at greater risk of second-order effects) the policy had unexpected outcomes.
The One Child Policy has been a common topic over the years (even the Economist published a recent article on “The Law of Unintended Consequences,” about changed attitudes in China toward family size). Let’s look at what happened over the last 35 years and why.