Disasters, Ugly and Cute

Recently, a story about species introduction and bad outcomes made the news. I had to write about this, but for a different reason than you might expect.

This story seems to have appeared in hundreds of news outlets over the past few days:

In 2012 a government initiative relocated 26 Tasmanian devils to Maria Island, a small island off the Tasmanian coast. The Tasmanian devil population has been in decline for years, due to a facial tumor cancer that spreads when they bite each other.

Unfortunately, Maria Island was also home to 3,000 little penguins — small, slow-walking birds that nest on land. (This species is actually called the “little penguin” as well as the “little blue penguin” and the “fairy penguin.”) With a new predator introduced, the penguins were all eaten. Continue reading “Disasters, Ugly and Cute”

Vultures and Ventures (Structure of Growth and Decline)

Vultures: Why are vultures dying in large numbers around the world? What else happens when the vultures decline? And let’s ask the question few are comfortable asking: How much is a species worth?

Ventures: Why do well-funded, fast-growing startups die? What else happens when they die? And let’s ask the question that is often ignored: Who wins in the process? Continue reading “Vultures and Ventures (Structure of Growth and Decline)”

The Self-Defeating Prophecy (and How it Works)


I write these posts to call attention to common phenomena that make the world work differently than we might think. One less discussed type of unintended consequence is the “self-defeating prophecy,” or “self-negating prediction,” where the existence of a prediction or belief ultimately leads to the opposite of what is expected.

Continue reading “The Self-Defeating Prophecy (and How it Works)”

Importing Risk and Risky Regulations

After last week’s post I became interested in the way acclimatization societies created unintended consequences from non-native species introduction around the world. Those societies sometimes introduced species without thought to impact on the local environment. More recently, governments developed environmental protection regulations to protect endangered species. These regulations have had Cobra Effect type second-order effects as well. Let’s look at why and what we could do instead. Continue reading “Importing Risk and Risky Regulations”