bans Archives - Unintended Consequences

A unintended consequence pattern I’m watching that seems to determine which problems get attention and action: are they visible/simple or hidden/complex?

What is highly noticeable, and maybe in some sense bad, gets more blame than it deserves. But the bigger problems are unseen.

Further to this, people take actions on the noticeable things (or problems) when only one step is required to see an impact. People avoid other, perhaps more important, things that require multiple steps for there to be impact.

This is an evolving thought that I call “The Kudzu Effect” for some of the parallels to the vine’s history. Here are just a couple examples. I’ll return to this idea in the future.

Continue reading “The Kudzu Effect”

What were unintended consequences of smoking bans and how can we use second-order thinking to decrease health effects of smoking tobacco?

Back in 2003 when the smoking laws changed in New York City, increasing the cigarette tax and eliminating indoor smoking sections in restaurants and bars, I noticed some other interesting effects. (Note: I am not a smoker.)

The first change was related to the increased local price of a pack of cigarettes, which went up to around $7 at the time (now $10.50 and above). The new $7 price was double the earlier local price. It was a big jump and immediately noticeable. An increased cigarette price had already been connected to fewer cigarettes being smoked. Continue reading “Smoking Bans. Smoking’s Back.”