Aristotle Archives - Unintended Consequences

When we want to change, build, or improve something we often only look one step in. That is, if we take action A we will get result B. End of story.

That’s only the end of the story because we stop looking.

Sometimes we only look that far because of a lack of imagination. Other times incentives are misaligned. Or when change comes at us too quickly. We also often only look one step in because considering more steps is difficult or impossible. The attempt to go beyond those problems is sometimes called “second-order thinking.”

Here are some recent events and proposal that clearly involve more than a single step when it comes to outcomes. Let’s look at ways the first step can result in unintended second steps and ways to change how we assess outcomes. Continue reading “A Second Step (to Systems Thinking)”

Part of my writing is an exploration of themes in unintended consequences and second-order effects. Today’s post is a first introduction to the broad phenomenon of emergence. This topic is something I’ll return to again, so we’re just introducing the term today.

Emergence occurs where the parts of a system interact to form something different from what each part contributes independently. It’s a concept that takes some time to understand at a basic level, though emergence happens all around us. Some common examples include the way hydrogen and oxygen atoms combine to form water (very different in combination from the individual atoms), how water molecules combine to form drops (again different from individual molecules with properties like surface tension), and how drops of water combine to form rivers and oceans (different again with their currents and waves). There are many other examples, from individual birds (or fish) forming flocks (or schools) that move differently than the individuals would by themselves, to consciousness emerging from our physical brains… Continue reading “What is Emergence? (Part 1)”