systems | complexity | second-order effects
Some systems look like one-way roads. Here I’ll call one-way system roads those which seem inclined to move in one direction, even if the endpoint is difficult to predict, and where it is difficult to return to the earlier state. In some cases an intervenor slows movement down the one-way road or lengthens the road itself.
Let’s look at depletion of forests to make charcoal, the search for oil, the possibility of world wars, opioid and social media addiction, and presidential election cycles.
Years ago, when I was in college, I spent a couple hours a day reading the New York times in print. I would go to my favorite library, get one of the two copies of that day’s paper, and probably go through half of it. I then read three or four other papers too. The feel and even the smell of the newsprint was something I looked forward to. I started my days that way. When I couldn’t start my days that way, I missed it.
One of my goals at the time was to do something in journalism. I wrote for a handful of college publications. But journalism ended up not being for me, and I have no regrets about that today. In the meantime I still looked forward to reading the paper.
But more often I ended up reading less news in focused hour-long chunks in the morning and more news in quick scattered clips throughout the day, often delivered via social media. This change gave me awareness of new developments but also distracted me incredibly from longer-term projects. You’ve probably gone through that change too.
Continue reading “Loop In, Loop Out (Business Models and Media)”
When something changes in financial value quickly, unintended consequences abound. When this change happens at scale, affecting many people, the consequences are even more extreme. These changes impact supply and demand and social change around the world.
Let’s look at some examples of value change causing havoc. This week I’m intentionally (well, almost entirely) not writing about the topic you can’t escape.
Continue reading “Changes in Value (Part 1)”
The story had paused for more than two thousand years and with a surprise discovery was then suddenly back in play. In the 1940s and 1950s a sad mismatch of incentives after the discovery of the Dead Sea Scrolls led to the destruction of parts of the ancient biblical documents. That destruction was something that no one wanted and yet, with these priceless historical items, it was logical. Why? Continue reading “Incentives”
It’s common for scalable companies with good business models to involve addiction.
I mean addiction in a broad sense. This includes addiction to both physical products and digital goods and services. Addiction is a retention metric.
And retention (how long someone stays a paid customer or user) is what fuels many businesses. Let’s look at this with opioid addiction, focusing on Purdue Pharma’s product OxyContin. What second-order effects drive the opioid crisis?
Continue reading “The Opioid Crisis (and addiction-based business models)”
