Posted on by porlando

Narrative Capture

Before we talk about narrative capture, let’s look at capture of another type.

Regulatory capture

Regulatory capture involves situations where a regulator ends up serving the interests of an industry, specific company, or other group. The people who are supposed to be making the rules end up following the lead of the very groups that they are supposed to be regulating.

Sometimes this is intentionally planned and financially supported and sometimes it just happens because of system design.

For a glimpse of thinking about regulatory capture during the late 1800s attempt to regulate railroads in the US, we have this attorney’s letter to a railroad president:

“My impressions would be that, looking at the matter from a railroad point of view exclusively, [repeal of the Interstate Commerce Act] would not be a wise thing to undertake…. The attempt would not be likely to succeed; if it did not succeed, and were made on the ground of the inefficiency and uselessness of the Commission, the result would very probably be giving it the power it now lacks. The Commission, as its functions have now been limited by the courts, is, or can be made, of great use to the railroads. It satisfies the popular clamor for a government supervision of railroads, at the same time that that supervision is almost entirely nominal. Further, the older such a Commission gets to be, the more inclined it will be found to take the business and railroad view of things…. The part of wisdom is not to destroy the Commission, but to utilize it.” — Richard Olney, letter to Charles E. Perkins, 1892

Or, as I’ve heard someone say, “I like having a big board to report to because they never get anything done.”

In other words, don’t fight regulation. which might only draw more public attention to your industry. Don’t draw attention to the “inefficiency and uselessness” of the regulator. But turn the regulator into a tool for your benefit.

Beneficiaries of regulatory capture can use the following tactics to gain an advantage.

    • Direct payoffs. In relatively well-functioning states this is not the biggest concern.
    • Indirect payoffs. Status, awards, recognition, and other forms of value.
    • People from industry enter government. It’s common for banking executives to enter senior government roles, for example.
    • People from government enter industry. It’s common for senior government officials to enter industry roles.
    • People from government enter industry-related groups. It’s common for senior government officials, already lawyers, to build their law firms based on the access they gained during their years in government.
    • Manufactured opinion. Industry-funded research or researchers privately funded by the industry produce arguments favorable to their hosts.
    • Public opinion (swayed by industry) pressures the regulator. Same as the above, but focused on the public rather than regulators.
    • Individual government official research for optimal influence. Compared to their regulators, industry actors have higher budgets and can research and court individual regulators.
    • Barriers of entry for later entrants. Once incumbents have become compliant with regulations, the regulations create barriers for new potential entrants.

A supporting characteristic of regulatory capture is that its many examples encourage people to think “that’s just the way things are.” Regulatory capture’s perceived inevitability results in complaints and acceptance more than actions to prevent or mitigate it.

Narrative capture

Regulatory capture has been studied for decades, if not centuries, and yet it still exists. When the topic does get attention it’s more about the existence of, rather than the prevention of, regulatory capture.

Then what do I mean by narrative capture?

Narrative capture is when an industry, company, or group changes the common narrative for their benefit, even if that just means changing the status quo. What are our baseline expectations? What is acceptable behavior? What is the way we measure fairness? What should we complain about?

As expected, narrative capture is different. Here are some of its forms.

An Appeal to Fairness

Recently there is additional attention to the way bias impacts decisions. Job applications are just one type of situation involving measures of fairness.

    • Legacy: Job recruiting and interviews are just the way they are.
    • New narrative: Humans are biased, putting some applicants at a disadvantage.
    • Industry response: Build tools for screening and interviews. Limit what information can be requested on a job application.
    • Result: AI tools shift the bias around but provide revenue for the producers. Social goals are well-meaning, but sometimes produce the opposite results of those expected (for example, in “Ban the Box“).

An Appeal to Safety

Shift the baseline of what number of traffic fatalities are considered acceptable from the current to what could be.

    • Legacy: Cars, roads, and drivers need to be safer. Thousands die each month in the US from traffic accidents.
    • New narrative: Humans are reckless, make mistakes, and should not be driving heavy, fast-moving objects surrounded by people. Autonomous vehicles (AVs) will be safer drivers and solve this problem.
    • Industry response: Billions invested in AV research.
    • Result: Assisted driving safety improvements and lower-level autonomy but higher systemic risk. When AV systems break they break in a big way.

Parasite Turns Symbiont

In the search for new ways to extract resources, the parasite and host come to depend on each other. A symbiosis forms.

    • Legacy: The US has a large military edge over other countries.
    • New narrative: The US exited Afghanistan in shame. The US military isn’t as strong as previously believed.
    • Industry response: Likely to be requests for more military funding.
    • Result: Arms race continues.

Myth of the Inevitable

When people believe something is inevitable, they won’t bother to fight it. Encourage the expectation of retribution against brands that criticize your group.

    • Legacy: China is a big market to bring international sports to. Olympic boycotts stopped being effective after the Cold War.
    • New narrative: China has persecuted Uighurs, Tibetans, and Hong Kongers. Therefore the 2022 Beijing Olympics should be boycotted.
    • Industry response: China is a big market and we fear retribution for supporting a boycott. It’s one thing to hold a diplomatic boycott during the Cold War but, unlike back then, there’s money to be made during the Olympics.
    • Result: Businesses try to avoid mention of human rights issues.

The Grassroots

Use public opinion to force regulatory change on municipalities.

    • Legacy: Taxi services and hotels have been regulated for decades.
    • New narrative: These businesses do not provide taxi or hotel service and fall outside of regulation. Or, these businesses result in better consumer service and should be permitted.
    • Industry response: Quick rollout to new markets. Flood municipal governments with positive consumer experiences.
    • Result: For taxis: Taxi medallion prices tank, destroying the biggest asset (and retirement) of some taxi drivers, resulting in suicides. For temporary housing: rents increase in markets where housing inventory is no longer available from the fulltime residents.

The Astroturf

Astroturfing is the practice of taking on the appearance of a grassroots movement to further one’s cause. The grassroots appearance lends a trustworthy appearance to the the organizer’s persuasion tactics.

    • Legacy: Grassroots movements stayed local. We never heard about most of them.
    • New narrative: There is a business model around fake grassroots movements, for example as created by Russia’s Internet Research Agency, so we should be more careful with news on social media.
    • Industry response: Everything from denying responsibility for monitoring the accuracy of shared information to the rationale that social media companies or the government should judge the accuracy of information.
    • Result: In a changing environment, the goal of chaos.

The Silent Arm Twist

Ukraine withdrew from a group of 40 supporting countries scrutinizing human rights in China after Chinese authorities threatened to block a planned shipment of 500,000 doses of COVID-19 vaccines. Similar activities for access to PPE before the vaccines.

    • Legacy: Countries are dependent on others for some essential items.
    • New narrative: Covid vaccines must be had at any price.
    • Industry response:  The price is to stop badmouthing the ones sending the vaccine.
    • Result: “Whose Bread I Eat, His Song I Sing.”

The Scissor

The regulatory change will be beneficial no matter what is decided. California’s Proposition 22 vote on exempting app‑based transportation and delivery companies from providing employee benefits.

    • Legacy: Sharing economy companies skirt the regulations that taxi and delivery companies previously had to abide by but are generally good.
    • New narrative: We need to regulate Uber, Lyft, Instacart, DoorDash, and others.
    • Industry response: Fund opposition to Prop 22.
    • Result: Shift costs to workers and customers. Fulltime workers laid off in exchange for sharing economy contractors.

Never-ending Narrative Niches

Who has the incentive to control the narrative? Is the narrative captured by an extreme group? Is there a business model for its capture?

Narrative capture can happen as a planned top-down action. And it can occur as bottom-up change when the entities encourage popular support.

When it comes to preventing narrative capture we might want to look at which markets are the biggest and therefore most beneficial for those capturing them.

But looking for big markets as a clue to narrative shifting can be misleading. As Sayre’s Law states: “In any dispute the intensity of feeling is inversely proportional to the value of the issues at stake.” That is, we can see intense competition for narrative capture even in small niches. Or, what seems small on a global scale is a big deal to those who care deeply about the issue.

It’s niches all the way down.