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Substitutions – The Temperance Movement and Ether

Unintended consequences come about when a change, believed to improve the current situation, actually makes the situation worse. That these changes are often well-meaning only adds to the irony of second-order effects. One source of new problems is the substitutions made when replacing the status quo.

As I’ve started to research famous second-order effects, several of the famous historical claims (like the one that follows) seem to be “just so” stories. The claims are too simplistic. There is just one change and just one result. While these stories make for a memorable explanation, without more detail, we just miseducate ourselves on second-order effects. Continue reading “Substitutions – The Temperance Movement and Ether”

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Uncertainty Saves Lives – the Peltzman Effect

When two sides remain in battle for long, they co-evolve. This is seen in the natural world in everything from the toughening of grasses vs strengthening of herbivore teeth and stomachs to the changing shape of flowers and bird beaks or insect probosces.

In the man made world we see co-evolution in too many pair situations to count. Here are a few such “games,” each operating on the health of the players in a different way: Continue reading “Uncertainty Saves Lives – the Peltzman Effect”

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Anything at Scale

While we usually talk about non-linear scale transformations in physical materials (radically different properties exhibited at nano scale, for example) there are also different scale effects driven by people and businesses. What will happen at scale is not always apparent, especially when our observations are biased toward single user or small group settings. Situations can grow less obvious or chaotic with growth.

Let’s look at effects of scale transformations in housing, fast wealth creation in a large population, transportation, and what happens when forces converge on places that are just too beautiful. Continue reading “Anything at Scale”

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Visibility of Cost

Costs work differently depending on who pays and when they pay. These questions of “who” and “when” and innovations that change them are second-order effects that impact what society gets more or less of.

Some products come with only a cost of production, paid first by the producer and then pushed on to the purchasing customer. This is in spite of the products themselves creating external costs that greater society or specific individuals must bear later on. Other products have these external costs built in at the point of production. In either case, the type and severity of the costs can vary. These costs may be unseen to the product’s end customer, but it is the difference in cost type that changes behavior and leads to unintended consequences. Continue reading “Visibility of Cost”

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One Child Policy (Outcomes in China)

After 35 years, China’s One Child Policy has come to an end. Carried out with high compliance and across a large population (at scale a decision is at greater risk of second-order effects) the policy had unexpected outcomes.

The One Child Policy has been a common topic over the years (even the Economist published a recent article on “The Law of Unintended Consequences,” about changed attitudes in China toward family size). Let’s look at what happened over the last 35 years and why.

Continue reading “One Child Policy (Outcomes in China)”

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What Are Unexpected Benefits?

When studying unintended consequences and second-level thinking, the least common category of example is the unexpected benefit. This is a positive, yet unexpected or unpredictable outcome from an action.

Compare against the unexpected drawback (unexpected detriments that occur in addition to the desired effect of the solution) and the perverse result (the “solution” makes the problem worse).

And a scan of common examples makes me believe that some of what we call unexpected benefits are improperly classified.

Continue reading “What Are Unexpected Benefits?”

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Egypt’s Aswan Damn

Is the Aswan Dam a perfect example of unintended consequences? No.

We innately love a just-so explanation for why things are the way they are. At the same time, we also know that the world is a complex place. That’s why when I saw the below quotation about second-level effects from Egypt’s Aswan Dam, I was both intrigued and skeptical.

Continue reading “Egypt’s Aswan Damn”

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The University Fundraising Arms Race

Over the past two decades, American universities have created reasons to spend more and raise large donations, without end. What are the second-order effects of this increase in fundraising activity? 

American universities remain highly sought after for both American and international students. The trends over the last few decades include a larger population now attending college (both in total numbers and percentage of population) with lower acceptance rates (partly driven by the increased number of applications per applicant). These two trends continue in spite of greatly increased tuition. Continue reading “The University Fundraising Arms Race”

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Smoking Bans. Smoking’s Back.

What were unintended consequences of smoking bans and how can we use second-order thinking to decrease health effects of smoking tobacco?

Back in 2003 when the smoking laws changed in New York City, increasing the cigarette tax and eliminating indoor smoking sections in restaurants and bars, I noticed some other interesting effects. (Note: I am not a smoker.)

The first change was related to the increased local price of a pack of cigarettes, which went up to around $7 at the time (now $10.50 and above). The new $7 price was double the earlier local price. It was a big jump and immediately noticeable. An increased cigarette price had already been connected to fewer cigarettes being smoked. Continue reading “Smoking Bans. Smoking’s Back.”

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Diet, Dying, and Demographics

Why study the below unintended consequence? When we seek to understand consequences of our actions and the hidden complexity that underlies them we can make better decisions. One set of decisions that everyone participates in throughout life is choice of diet. The impact of what we consume on a daily basis is often only felt many years later — and can be an accident of birth.

Life expectancy has increased in most of the world over the last century due to many factors, a big one being lower infant and child mortality. Accounting for that and other factors, as the percentage of a population that is “old” grows larger, some populations have a natural advantage in the way they age. Some of this advantage can be attributed to dietary traditions that were adopted before a significant percentage of the population was older (65+). Continue reading “Diet, Dying, and Demographics”